By Calvin Palmer
Hurricane forecasters are still predicting 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the 2010 season, with five of them developing into major hurricanes, Category 3 or above.
This above-average prediction is based on unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of La Nina.
The team at Colorado State University, led by William Gray, is sticking to its June 2 forecast of a total of 18 named storms between June 1 and November 30.
“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 75 percent,” said Gray.
The team has monitored warm sea temperatures during June and July, as well as low sea level pressures.
“These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic season,” said Phil Klotzbach, the lead author on the forecast.
Three tropical storms have developed so far this season, one of which gained hurricane strength. But the high point of the season runs from mid-August to October.
The team predicts a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula.
A 49 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.
A 64 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the Caribbean islands and Central America.
The climate factors are similar to conditions that prevailed during the 1952, 1958, 1998 and 2005 seasons. The average of these four seasons shows well above-average activity.
Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have activity in line with the average of these five years.
The trouble with predictions is that they have a nasty habit of turning out wrong. Many experts predicted Brazil would win the 2010 World Cup. They did not.
The saying goes, “Put your money where your mouth is”. I doubt either Klotzbach or Gray would bet the farm on their predictions. And if they had in the past, would they have become rich men? It is hard to say because when these predictions go awry, they are conveniently forgotten and those making such erroneous predictions are seldom called to account.
I will wager both Klotzbach and Gray are hoping for a hurricane season far worse than they are suggesting.
First, it will enable the global warming alarmists to pat each other on the back, at the same time inflating their smug self-righteous egos. Second, it will enable them to scam more research funds from governments whose political leaders have knowledge of things scientific that is about on a par with that of my chihuahua.